3 An efficient and responsible Group Maximize the contribution for the planet and communities SAINT-GOBAIN UNIVERSAL REGISTRATION DOCUMENT 2021 85 Climate scenario analysis at 2050 2.1.2.2 For strategic planning purposes, Saint-Gobain has built three qualitative climate scenarios that incorporate political, technological, economic and societal assumptions. Each scenario is associated with an increase in average temperature of between 1.5°C and 4.8°C before the end of the century. These scenarios help Business Units and the countries in which the Group operates to anticipate the impacts of climate change on their markets and their activities. Indicators Wind of Change The Show Might Go On Highway to Climate Hell GENERAL CONTEXT Increased temperatures in 2100 compared to the pre-industrial era (1850-1900) 1.5-1.7°C 2.3-3.7°C 4.1-4.8°C Peak global carbon dioxide emissions Around 2020 Around 2040 Around 2100 Achievement of the “Global zero carbon” objective Around 2070 After 2100 Not in the near future International cooperation model Multilateralism and cooperation Digital arms race, lack of cooperation Regional rivalry MACROECONOMIC FRAMEWORK Global population (2019 = 7.7 billion) 9.7 billion 9.7 billion 9.7 billion Urbanization rate (2019 = 56%) 68% 68% 68% CONSTRUCTION NEEDS Sea level rise (compared to 1986-2005) +0.4 meters +0.5 meters +0.6 meters Average length of drought periods 9 to 11 months 18 months 22 months Number of tropical nights (compared to 1981-2000) +16 days +28 days +53 days MOBILITY % of electric cars in the vehicle fleet in 2050 (2019 = 8%) 75% 60% 45% Annual vehicle sales (market growth in 2026 compared to 2018) In developed economies -6% -6% -6% In Asia +22% +22% +22% In total -9% -9% -9% “Wind of Change” scenario SUSTAINABLE CITY Model of existing city Amsterdam, Valencia, Dubai Size Medium-sized city – generally between 750,000 and 3 million inhabitants. The city center is dense. Mobility Well established public transit system, increasing investments in active modes of mobility (walking, cycling) and shared roads BUILDINGS AND ARCHITECTURE Buildings are generally collective buildings built around 2018 in accordance with the latest environmental regulations. ■ Household appliances are shared and efficient while excess heat is shared between connected buildings. ■ Apartments are easy to reconfigure and refurbish to optimize space. ■ Builders favor natural lighting, passive cooling and solar protection. ■ To improve their resilience, the buildings are equipped with green walls and roofs, wastewater and rainwater harvesting systems, ■ reflective materials, and the foundations are adapted to remove clays. The use of bio-sourced, reused and recycled materials is becoming widespread to mitigate the effects of climate change. Likewise, ■ energy self-production, waste sorting and composting systems are installed: innovations are thus used to optimize energy efficiency. The installation of smart meters and sensors makes it possible to monitor consumption and automatically regulate lighting, ventilation, ■ cooling and heating.
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